【SMM  Analysis】Lithium Ore Weekly Review (15–18 Sep)

ExxonMobil's competitive edge lies in its use of synthetic graphite. This lab-engineered carbon material is produced from petroleum byproducts or other feedstocks rather than being mined. Compared with natural graphite, synthetic graphite offers higher purity and consistency. Its production is less labor-intensive, scalable through ExxonMobil’s refineries, and more environmentally friendly due to lower land use and emissions. This material outperforms mined alternatives in conductivity and stability, directly enhancing battery efficiency and reliability. Following its acquisition of Superior Graphite’s assets in September 2025, ExxonMobil aims to expand domestic production capacity in the U.S., reduce reliance on imports, and support local EV manufacturing.

According to market perspectives, involved mine enterprises lacking complete data need to conduct re-exploration and drilling, a lengthy process that will inevitably lead to overdue report submissions. Moreover, the review timeline and stringency after submission add further uncertainties. Regarding the potential resumption date of CATL's mine, the market also holds significant divergences: One side believes that considering Jiangxi's local economic dependence on the lithium industry, it will push for CATL's review to be completed within 1-3 months; the other side, referencing past lithium mine approval cases and regulatory stringency, judges that the review timeline may extend to half a year or more. More critically, if the other seven mines are confirmed to require license renewal according to lithium mine standards, their shutdowns will further reduce monthly lithium carbonate supply by approximately 5,000-7,000 mt, potentially exacerbating the supply shortage. 

The European Union Batteries and Waste Batteries Regulation (2023/1542) officially entered into force on August 17, 2023, establishing a legally binding framework for the full life cycle management of batteries for all member states

Initial assays from the HCK joint venture project, announced on July 10, revealed a 6.9-meter lithium-rich intercept at 174.6 meters depth (drill hole MWOG0002), averaging 2.11% Li₂O with a high-grade 3.45-meter zone grading 3.20% Li₂O.

Global mining giant Rio Tinto has signed an agreement with Chile’s state-owned Codelco to jointly develop a major lithium project in the Salar de Maricunga, marking a strategic expansion in battery metals. Under the deal, Rio Tinto will acquire a 49.99% stake in the project company by investing $900 million, collaborating with Codelco to advance the development of this high-grade lithium brine resource.

[SMM Analysis]Summarizing the three articles in this series, the author believes that around 70% of U.S. tariffs on China may be a theoretical equilibrium level. If the tariffs are below around 70%, China's LFP energy storage cells still have a price advantage over those produced by the U.S. on its own production lines. If the tariffs are above around 70%, it would be more advantageous for the U.S. to produce LFP energy storage cells locally. However, assuming that the transshipment trade channel is not completely blocked, transshipment trade remains the most economical way of trade.

[SMM Analysis]This article aims to analyze the price impact of energy storage cells produced in China and exported directly, transshipped via Malaysia, and locally produced in the US from August 13 to January 1, 2026. Some of the data used are theoretical, which may make the results appear on the higher side. The author will try to explain the reasons for each data point in detail so that readers can replace the relevant data to obtain more targeted conclusions. The third article in this series will focus on the price impact caused by tariffs after January 1, 2026.

[SMM Analysis]This article is the first in the series, aiming to analyze the price impact of Chinese-produced energy storage cells exported directly, transshipped via Malaysia, and the hypothetical scenario of local production of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) energy storage cells in the US, from May 14 to August 13. Some of the data used are theoretical, which may make the results appear on the higher side. The author will explain the reasons for each data point in detail to allow readers to replace the relevant data and obtain more targeted conclusions. Follow-up articles (II) and (III) will analyze the price impact due to different tariffs at subsequent time points.

[SMM Analysis]On May 27, 2025, REPT Battero Energy Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "REPT Battero") and Hyosung Heavy Industries (hereinafter referred to as "Hyosung") officially signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for strategic cooperation, marking the beginning of in-depth collaboration in the energy storage system (ESS) sector. This cooperation focuses on key areas such as ESS battery cell supply, system integration, and market promotion.

[SMM Analysis]According to March 2025 data released by ​​the China Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance​​（CABIA）, China's power battery installations reached ​​56.6 GWh​​ that month, ​​marking a 62.3% increase from the previous month and a 61.8% year-on-year growth​​.